Probabilistic Thinking (See also: Numeracy/Bayesian Updating)

General Thinking Tools
The unknowable human world is dominated by probabilistic outcomes, as distinguished from deterministic ones. Although we cannot predict the future with great certainty, we are wise to ascribe odds to more and less probable events. We do this every day unconsciously as we cross the street and ascribe low, yet not negligible, odds of being hit by a car.
Resource Datasbase
Shane Parrish's Farnam Street Mental Model Guide