Probabilistic Thinking (See also: Numeracy/Bayesian Updating)

Category
General Thinking Tools
Description
The unknowable human world is dominated by probabilistic outcomes, as distinguished from deterministic ones. Although we cannot predict the future with great certainty, we are wise to ascribe odds to more and less probable events. We do this every day unconsciously as we cross the street and ascribe low, yet not negligible, odds of being hit by a car.
Person
Resource Datasbase
Source
Shane Parrish's Farnam Street Mental Model Guide