Hindsight Bias

Category
Human Nature
Description
Once we know the outcome, it’s nearly impossible to turn back the clock mentally. Our narrative instinct leads us to reason that we knew it all along (whatever “it” is), when in fact we are often simply reasoning post-hoc with information not available to us before the event. The hindsight bias explains why it’s wise to keep a journal of important decisions for an unaltered record and to re-examine our beliefs when we convince ourselves that we knew it all along. - Shane Parrish Managing: “The inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it.” (related: Pollyanna principle — “tendency for people to remember pleasant items more accurately than unpleasant ones”) - Gabriel Weinberg
Person
Resource Datasbase
Source
Shane Parrish's Farnam Street Mental Model Guide https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/mental-models/ --- Gabriel Weinberg's Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful https://medium.com/@yegg/mental-models-i-find-repeatedly-useful-936f1cc405d