10 - 3 - Markov Model of Democratization

Markov Models

"To explain this model its' best to give the example of countries. Countries that can be free, partly free or run by dictators (not free). Start from a 2 state democracy model -> 5% of democracies switch to dictatorship and 20% the opposite. Trend towards freedom, but only 2/3 will be free unless the transition probabilities change. You can get a line chart or a bar chart to compare model and actual, and they are very similar! And line chart patterns look very similar!!" - Model Thinking Section 10: Markov Models

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Scott Page Model Thinking MOOC Course