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Top mental models on making decisions, particularly when things are uncertain and when the stakes are high
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Making a decision requires taking literally unimaginable risks as we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, in a month, in a year, in 10 years. When you make a decision, you alter the path of time and causality. You push over a domino that has a whole bunch of other dominoes branching out in front of it that branch out, and you can't see most of the branches. In this manual, we will take a look at the mindset of decision-making, particularly as it relates to making big decisions in a world with unprecedented uncertainty.
There are consequences to each action, and there are consequences to consequences. These are called Second-Order Effects. Ultimately, it’s impossible to predict all the consequences perfectly, but some of them are really predictable, and the better of a model you have, the better you'll be prepared to notice the opportunity in your industry.
When most people think about scenarios, they either think only about the positive scenarios (if they’re setting a goal), or only about the negative outcomes (if they’re in worry mode), and they usually focus only on the short term. With scenario planning, you expand your perspectives by thinking about both the positive and negative and by extending into the long term.