I just got off the phone with a friend in the US who saw the Coronavirus coming in January. By early February, he...
- Stockpiled months of food
- Sold his entire stock portfolio
- Was calling his parents every single day to get them to take it seriously
- Bought a Peloton bike so he could workout from home
- Hasn't left his NYC apt since February
I've noticed this pattern across my network...
My friends who responded to Coronavirus the quickest and best are all mental model collectors.
In other words, they very deliberately...
- Identify the most valuable mental models (ie - positive feedback loops, antifragility, second-order effects, scenario planning, etc) in the world.
- Apply it across each area of their life.
- Create better results for themselves and impact for others.
So when the Coronavirus surfaced in China, even though these friends had never experienced a pandemic, they could use mental models in order to rapidly understand and orient themselves. They could do this because mental models are inherently cross-domain. They allow you to think like a polymath.
At first, these friends were told by everyone that they were over-reacting. Now, they are vindicated.
Seeing change coming before others and reacting in the best way is a super-power.
It is the key to navigating change. It is the key to navigating this moment.
For example, when most people saw the Coronavirus spreading in China, and then Europe, they took a "wait and see" approach. They waited to see what authorities would say and do. They waited to see what their networks would do.
My friends who use mental models did the opposite. They...
- Saw how the virus would spread exponentially (i.e. the mental model of positive feedback loop: the speed at which exponential curves grow is very counterintuitive)
- Understood the second-order effects — the domino chain of effects — when all businesses are shut down (stock market would collapse, people would all rush to the grocery store to stockpile, etc.)
- Didn't trust our news media or government above their own intuition — all “trained” with mental models (they kept tabs of course, but were thinking on a much deeper level)
I still see the same divide between the "wait-and-see" approach and the mental model approach.
Most people are waiting for things to return back to normal in the next 1-2 months. That's how far the government is giving guidance on.
Mental model collectors are thinking into 2021.
So why does this all matter to you?
Seeing change coming before others — and adapting fast — has never been more urgent and important…
- It allows you to stay calm and focused... when the tidal waves finally hit (vs. feeling overwhelmed, surprised and demotivated)
- It allows you to lead others with your knowledge and support (vs. following the crowd and being influenced without your knowledge)
- It allows you to identify new career, business, and personal opportunities fast (vs. being late to the game, and missing a once-in-a-life opportunity to go the next level in life)
How To Learn Mental Models
Right now, learning mental models isn't just a strong long-term learning strategy. It is an urgent strategy for you, your family, and your business/career.
Moments like this are literally why we created the Mental Model Club. To make it affordable for everyone, you can try it out for just $1.
The Mental Model Club is where I share all of my new and best thinking on mental models.